Humans could head to Mars by 2030s, Musk says

Eric Lagatta

USA TODAY

The idea that humans could one day populate and even colonize Mars is one no longer confined to the realm of science fiction.

Astronauts are on the cusp of journeying all the way to the Red Planet, where so far only rovers and orbiters have dared to venture. And when they do, it’s likely they’ll make landfall aboard a SpaceX Starship.

Billionaire Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 with the vision of paving the way to create a self-sustaining colony on the Red Planet. By April 2023, the company rolled out its massive Starship – the rocket/spacecraft combo designed to reach Mars – to its South Texas launch pad for what would be its first of nine flight tests to date.

But Starship has a long way to go before it can carry the first spacefarers to Mars and fulfill Musk’s oft-stated dream of 'making life multiplanetary.'

So, why Mars, as opposed to, say, Jupiter or Venus?

Mars gets a decent amount of sunlight, has water sources and is already a planet where humanity has sent robotic rovers to scout the terrain. At an average distance of 140million miles from Earth, it’s also one of our closest cosmic neighbors.

While Mars has a thin atmosphere and is relatively cold, SpaceX claims on its website, 'we can warm it up.'

Gravity on Mars is about 38% of that of Earth’s, meaning humans would be able to lift heavier objects and bound around.

What is Starship and its mission?

SpaceX is developing Starship specifically with a Martian destination in mind. The spacecraft is designed to be a fully reusable transportation system, meaning the rocket and vehicle can return to the ground for additional missions.

The Starship, standing 403 feet tall when fully stacked, is regarded as the world’s largest and most powerful launch vehicle ever developed. When fully integrated, the launch system is composed of both a 232-foot Super Heavy rocket and the 171-foot upper stage Starship itself, the spacecraft where crew and cargo would ride.

Super Heavy alone is powered by 33 of SpaceX’s Raptor engines that give the initial burst of thrust at liftoff. The upper stage Starship section is powered by six Raptor engines that will ultimately travel in orbit.

Musk wants to send the first uncrewed Starship to Mars by the end of 2026 for a very critical reason: The timeline coincides with an orbital alignment around the sun that would shorten the journey between Earth and Mars.

It’s a slim window that occurs once about every two years, and if SpaceX misses it, Musk has said the company would target another mission during the next alignment. If Starship were to blast off for the Red Planet by the end of 2026, the journey itself would take between seven to nine months.

While no humans would have a seat on the first flight to Mars, Starship won’t be empty. Instead, the vehicle would carry one or more Optimus robots designed and built by Tesla, Musk’s electric vehicle company.

Starship would enter Mars’ atmosphere at 4.6 miles per second before it begins decelerating. The vehicle’s heat shield is designed to withstand multiple atmospheric entries, but the Martian environment is expected to be harsher on the spacecraft, given its higher levels of atomic oxygen in the atmosphere, according to SpaceX.

SpaceX is still considering multiple potential landing sites on Mars for Starship, but the leading contender appears to be a region known as Arcadia. The volcanic plain is on Mars’ northern hemisphere far from the planet’s frigid poles, with access to water sources in the form of shallow ice. Arcadia is also flat enough to make landings and takeoffs relatively safer, Musk has said.

What happens when the first humans arrive on Mars?

Crewed trips with humans would then follow most likely in the early 2030s, Musk has claimed.

Musk said he envisions eventually launching 1,000 to 2,000 Starships to Mars every two years so enough people and supplies can make it to the surface to quickly establish a livable, self-sufficient city.

Achieving that goal would require more than 1million Martian residents and millions of tons of cargo, according to SpaceX. For that reason, the company has a target of one day launching Starship more than 10 times per day from Earth to Mars during those crucial transfer windows every 26 months.

The first humans on Mars would be tasked with taking account of local resources, setting up landing operations, establishing a power source and building homes.

How does Musk’s vision fit in with Trump’s?

NASA also has designs on astronauts reaching Mars – even if the agency’s plan of attack differs from Musk’s.

Starship is crucial to the U.S. space agency’s goal of returning astronauts to the moon’s surface for the first time in five decades. NASA’s lunar exploration plans call for Artemis III astronauts aboard the Orion capsule to board the Starship while in orbit for a ride to the moon’s surface as early as 2027.

Once NASA has established a base camp on the lunar south pole, the agency envisions sending humans from the moon on to Mars.

President Donald Trump also outlined in his inauguration speech his intent for humans to 'plant the Stars and Stripes on the planet Mars' during his second term – a vision from which he hasn’t appeared to waver even after a public spat with Musk in June.

While Trump has proposed a significant 25% cut to NASA’s overall budget, the cuts mostly target the space agency’s science programs while increasing funding for space exploration. The White House’s 2026 budget proposal calls for allocating more than $1billion for Mars exploration, while an additional $10billion in funding for NASA was included in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill.'

Trump also signed an executive order in August aimed at rolling back federal regulations on commercial spaceflight companies. The move came a few months after the Federal Aviation Administration gave approval in May for SpaceX to conduct as many as 25 Starship test flights a year as Musk seeks to ramp up development of the Mars-bound spacecraft.